In The Driver’s Seat: Mercedes can be positive ahead of 2023 despite tyre strategy error

October 31, 2022 12:48 PMCould Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes really have won the Mexico City Grand Prix on Sunday? The way that the multiple world champion had set the fastest times in the first two sessions of qualifying, only to lose pace with a deleted lap time and then engine glitches in the final one which set the front five rows, the auguries had seemed positive. He is the only champion ever to have won a race in each of his years in Formula One, but now only two opportunities remain: Brazil and Abu Dhabi. And the best, the US and Mexico, now lie behind us. On Oct 23, the Red Bull simply had too much pace on the Circuit of The Americas. This time, however, the peculiarities of the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez threw the Silver Arrows a lifeline. It’s the third-shortest circuit on the 2022 F1 calendar, yet boasts the longest run – 811m – from pole position to the first braking point. But most of all, it’s 2,200m above sea level, the highest of any circuit, and that altitude and the low air density in Mexico City makes the air so thin there are fewer molecules floating around. It thus draws less energy away from hot things, such as F1 power units and brakes, which makes sufficient cooling a major challenge if a team are to contain temperatures without compromising the aerodynamics. And the ambient pressure is by far the lowest of the season. At 780mb, the oxygen levels are 78 per cent of what they are at sea level, and this also has a significant impact on areas such as power unit breathing and therefore performance, and the levels of downforce. It’s a paradox that while teams run the same highest levels of downforce that they would round the streets of Monaco, where top speed is largely irrelevant, the cars will still top 360kmh down the Mexican track’s long front straight. Mercedes thus came here quietly hoping that their W13, which is normally quite a draggy car, might have a performance advantage in these odd conditions. And so it proved as Hamilton flew in qualifying after George Russell had been fastest in the final session of practice that preceded it. Sadly, in what turned into one of those ‘hurry up and wait’ races in which you wait for something explosive to happen that never does, Red Bull made a better tyre choice. They started Verstappen and local hero Sergio Perez on Pirelli’s soft tyres, as did the woeful Ferraris of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc. Mercedes, however, had a secret gamble up their sleeve, and started second-fastest Russell and third-fastest Hamilton on medium rubber. And, crucially, instead of intending to run them much longer than the Red Bulls would be able to and then switching to the soft tyres towards the end, they planned to get their drivers to the finish on the hardest (and thus most durable but slowest) compound. Hamilton admits that his heart dropped when he saw his rivals starting on the red-banded rubber, and though his Mercedes looked good initially on the mediums and began to match their pace as the softs reached their peak, when Red Bull switched to mediums and he was on the hards, it was no contest. Verstappen led him home by 15.186 seconds. Mercedes thrashed the Ferraris, but failing to win because of an error in tyre strategy was a major disappointment that he hid well. No doubt Verstappen will improve two records he broke on Sunday afternoon: the mark for the most wins in a season at 14, and the most points in a season at 416; with two races to go those figures will probably rise to 16 and 466 (possibly 468 if he sets fastest laps). But we should take heart that Mercedes’ recent dramatic upturn in performance holds the promise of much more competitive pace in 2023, especially as Red Bull have a dramatically reduced wind tunnel usage allowance next year to go with their US$7 million (S$9.88 million) for breaching the cost cap.